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A path to Covid-19 survivability and Herd Immunity, Jamaica's perspective.

 

Just how dangerous is Covid-19? What's the current state of herd immunity?

Below I take a peak at some numbers and show how the Jamaica's current infection state impacts herd immunity. 

Age Group

Jamaica's Total population 2018 1

Infection Fatality Ratio 2

Statistically at Risk Population

Confirmed Covid Cases by Age Group 3

Covid Deaths by Age Group 3

Care Fatality Rates

65+ year old

249,789

9.000%

22,481

               8,630

719

8%

50 to 64 year old

398,807

0.600%

2,393

               9,987

314

3%

18 to 49 years old

1,360,369

0.050%

680

             27,232

139

1%

0 to 17 year old

     718,537

0.002%

        14

   6,654

      10

0%

Totals & Averages

2,727,502

1%

25,568

             52,503

        1,182

2%

 

Jamaica's Covid-19 Notes

  • As of July 23, 2021 over 120,000 Jamaican's have been fully vaccinated. 4
  • As of July 28, 2021 over 46, 000 covid-19 infected Jamaican's have recovered. 3
  • Statistically 30% of infections are Asymptomatic.2
    • Probable 15% of infected and recovered population not statistically accounted for(6,900).
  • Herd immunity population:
    • Is effectively over 166,000 Jamaican's or 5.6% of population(2,945,000).
    • Theoretically probable immune population: Over 173,000 or 5.9%.

 

References:

1. Statin Jamaica: https://statinja.gov.jm/Demo_SocialStats/newMidYearPopulationbyAgeandSex2008.aspx1 

2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC) USA:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

3. Ministry of Health & Wellness, Jamcovid19 (Data as of July 29, 2021): https://jamcovid19.moh.gov.jm/

4. Ministry of Health & Wellness, Covid-19 Vax Track: https://www.moh.gov.jm/updates/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccination-tracker/

 


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