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Murder rate and Foreign Exchange Rate - Jamaica's Correlated Trends


For year I have been asking the question of whether or not the murder rate in Jamaica was correlated to the exchange rate? I still don't have a clear answer answer to that question but at least now I have charts that graphically highlights the data and the possibility.



This chart highlights the simple fact that everyone was aware of but has never really seen, Jamaica murder figures have been trending up for the last forty years. The trend seems to be changing however over the last four years from an upward trend to a more range bound trend. Good.



The exchange rate with the benchmark US dollar has experienced a similar upward trend over the last forty years with Jamaica. But now I have these chart what does it mean? Is crime driving higher exchange rates or is it oil prices?



This chart illustrates something not known by every Jamaican. The upward trend of murder figures has been leading the US dollar exchange rate. The more important issue however is whether or not they are actually correlated? How will 2014's data turn out?

While it seems that murders lead exchange rate its not yet clear is murders is a leading factor driving exchange rate higher.

From a different perspective these data sets can be used to identify investment opportunities. Investments in locally sourced and produced goods and services for the tourism and export market in the 70's and 80's would have yielded significant dividends over the last 20 years and especially so in times when local inflation was lower than the dollar devaluation rate. Those who foresaw the continuous rise in crime would have done well had they invested in security services and products. Demand for these good and services soared through the roof.

The unfortunate conclusion in all of this however is that the socio-economic status of the average Jamaican would not have improved as a result of these statistics and it is now important that people now look to data like this to be more informed and utilize it to inspire creative solutions that will have meaningful impacts.

You may also like reading:

Its time to Invest in Jamaica

27 Countries Jamaica should infect with its qualities

An Exchange Rate Racing Away

Translating Publicity to Prosperity



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